Since the sum-mer there has been a clear esca-la-tion in activ-ity in Syria. Prior to Russia's inva-sion of Syria on 31st Sep-tem-ber 2015 Rus-sia engaged in a flurry of polit-i-cal and diplo-matic activ-ity with all the regional and inter-na-tional play-ers with a stake in Syria. It even held a meet-ing in August with the rebel oppo-si-tion who vis-ited Moscow. Russia's airstrikes came to prop up the al-Assad regime and despite claims of tar-get-ingISIS, almost all of Russia's airstrikes tar-geted rebel groups in Idlib and Hama, areas which were bleed-ing the al-Assad regime to death. All of this cul-mi-nated in 17 nations com-ing together in Vienna, Aus-tria on 14th Novem-ber 2015 to agree in a com-mu-nique to the upris-ing and sub-se-quent cri-sis in Syria. Just over a month ago the al-Assad regime was on the verge of col-lapse, in this con-text the inter-na-tional pow-ers are push-ing ahead with a tran-si-tional process which was deter-mined in the Geneva com-mu-nique in 2012. The real aim which has been to iso-late the sin-cere groups and peo-ple and deal them a death blow. The Vienna com-mu-nique is in effect the inter-na-tional pow-ers telling the rebel groups their war is over and they should make their final stand! The first aspect of the Vienna agree-ment is for the al-Assad gov-ern-ment and oppo-si-tion to enter into for-mal nego-ti-a-tions. Despite all the rhetoric against al-Assad and despite the oppo-si-tion groups refus-ing to nego-ti-ate with the regime the oppo-si-tion has accepted this as a for-mal part of the nego-ti-a-tions. The USfrom the begin-ning of the upris-ing in Syria gath-ered a num-ber of indi-vid-u-als, who were mostly dis-si-dents and treated them as rep-re-sen-ta-tives of the rebel forces and labelled them as the lead-ers of the oppo-si-tion. These indi-vid-u-als were ini-tially the "Syr-ian National Coun-cil", then the "Syr-ian National Coali-tion" and today their title has expanded to "National Coali-tion for Syr-ian Rev-o-lu-tion-ary and Oppo-si-tion Forces". This oppo-si-tion has been try-ing to act as a tran-si-tional gov-ern-ment, with gov-ern-ment posts dis-trib-uted amongst its var-i-ous mem-bers. But this oppo-si-tion has been a com-plete fail-ure, as it in real-ity it con-sists of indi-vid-u-als with absolutely no influ-ence over any-one or any piece of Syria. The coali-tion has trot-ted around the world meet-ing US, British, French and Turk-ish offi-cials, but they have no sup-port, fol-low-ing or any respect by those who are brac-ing it out against the forces of al-Assad. The peo-ple facing-off against the regime for so long, did so with the inten-tion to over-throw Bashar al-Assad. But in the hand-picked oppo-si-tion that the inter-na-tional pow-ers con-stantly meet they have found a group of oppor-tunists who, for posi-tions in a future gov-ern-ment, are pre-pared to make a deal with the devil himself. The sec-ond aspect of the Vienna agree-ment is a cease-fire between the Syr-ian gov-ern-ment and oppo-si-tion groups, over-seen by the UN. The aim here is to use the cover of a cease-fire to draw up a new con-sti-tu-tion when fight-ing ceases dur-ing this period. Var-i-ous cease-fires have already taken place which only strength-ened the al-Assad regime. Bashar has been los-ing ground across the length and breadth of the coun-try and all the cease-fires gave him time to regroup and refo-cus efforts else-where. In some areas some rebel groups agreed cease-fires when help was not forth-com-ing from other rebel groups after the regime had con-ducted extreme sieges and burnt whole towns to the ground, such as in Homs. The biggest prob-lem the inter-na-tional pow-ers have faced is the rebel groups fight-ing on the ground who have worked for years to alter the bal-ance of power in the coun-try. Russia's inter-ven-tion itself took place due to rebel groups launching strike on Latakia, the Alawi strong-hold. Even cease-fire nego-ti-a-tions require the rebel groups and rep-re-sen-ta-tives of the al-Assad regime to com-mu-ni-cate and have meet-ings and this is some-thing the inter-na-tional pow-ers have been work-ing to expand and nor-malise as a process. But for this part of the com-mu-nique to work it requires the rebel groups to put down their arms and nego-ti-ate with the regime, which remains very unlikely. The US plans to deal with this prob-lem is through another key aspect of the Vienna com-mu-nique and that is through elec-tions admin-is-tered by the UN held under the new con-sti-tu-tion. Through the oppo-si-tion coali-tion that will legit-imise the tran-si-tion process and the few rebel groups the US has been back-ing, they will be used to iso-late and iden-tify the irrec-on-cil-ables who will be dealt with, through mil-i-tary action. This is whatUS sec-re-tary of state alluded to in Vienna when he said: "diplo-mats meet-ing in the Aus-trian cap-i-tal also decided to place ISIS, along with the al-Qaeda affil-i-ated Nusra Front ter-ror-ist group, on a list of those sub-ject to mil-i-tary strikes even when a cease-fire is in place. The list, man-aged by the King-dom of Jor-dan, may later be expanded to include other groups in Syria." Russia's inter-ven-tion due to ter-ror-ism and tar-get-ingISIS has been exposed as merely a cover to tar-get the rebel groups who were fight-ing the al-Assad regime and bleed-ing it to death. The US will inter-vene directly in Syria, if needed to deal a fatal blow to the sin-cere rebel groups, under the guise of tar-get-ing ISIS and ter-ror-ism. This was some-thing US sec-re-tary of defence con-firmed in a Sen-ate hear-ing on Octo-ber 27th that the US will begin "direct action on the ground" againstISIS forces in Iraq and Syria. "We won't hold back from sup-port-ing capa-ble part-ners in oppor-tunis-tic attacks against ISIL, or con-duct-ing such mis-sions directly whether by strikes from the air or direct action on the ground. This is com-bat and things are com-pli-cated," said Sen-a-tor Ash-ton. The only aspect that would remain in thwart-ing real change in Syria is the role of Bashar al-Assad him-self. In Syria both the US and Rus-sia have always been in agree-ment the regime needs to remain at all costs. The then US Sec-re-tary of Defense, Leon Panetta, in 2012 explained: "I think it's impor-tant when Assad leaves - and he will leave - to try to pre-serve sta-bil-ity in that coun-try. And the best way to pre-serve that kind of sta-bil-ity is to main-tain as much of the mil-i-tary, the police, as you can, along with the secu-rity forces, and hope that they will tran-si-tion to a demo-c-ra-tic form of gov-ern-ment. That's a key." For the US main-tain-ing the regime has always been its aim, with or with-out al-Assad. Rus-sia has not only pro-vided polit-i-cal cover for the Dam-as-cus regime but also pro-vided finan-cial, eco-nomic, mil-i-tary and intel-li-gence sup-port to ensure it is not removed. The real-ity of the Syr-ian regime and any regime for that mat-ter is one per-son is never a whole gov-ern-ment. Whether it was Stalin, Mao, kim jong il of North Korea or Robert Mugabe of Zim-babwe, they all relied on their intel-li-gence heads, fam-ily net-works, busi-ness elites and var-i-ous insid-ers to run their author-i-tar-ian regimes. Even Vladimir Putin of Rus-sia, despite his power, he shares power with the secu-rity class in Rus-sia and has var-i-ous cen-tres of power. Rus-sia and the US are in agree-ment in pre-serv-ing the regime in Dam-as-cus, it is irrel-e-vant whether Bashar al-Assad is lead-ing it or not. This is because despite his author-i-tar-i-an-ism, the Dam-as-cus regime will con-tinue with-out him after he is long gone. With the Vienna com-mu-nique the inter-na-tional pow-ers are telling the rebel groups loud and clear that the moment of truth is upon them and they will need to decide which side of his-tory they want to come out on. All the stake-hold-ers are very clear on what is tak-ing place in Syria and what the impli-ca-tions are if the peo-ple suc-ceed. This is why they have in real-ity propped up Bashar al-Assad by doing lit-tle phys-i-cal actions against him and con-cealed this with lots of rhetoric. But as the bat-tle in Syria con-tin-ued it worked to the strength of the peo-ple of Syria as the regime had to con-stantly find new sol-diers and fight-ers from a sup-port base that doesn't want to send its sons to go and die. This is why the last 3 months has seen such inten-sive mil-i-tary and diplo-matic activ-ity. Whether it is the US or Rus-sia they have con-stantly under-es-ti-mated the resolve and capa-bil-i-ties of the rebel groups work-ing for real change in Syria. The fact that we are still dis-cussing Syria nearly five years after the upris-ing begun is tes-ta-ment to this reality.

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Syria's Moment of Truth

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